Discussing American politics as civil human beings

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by BurnPyro, Sep 13, 2015.

  1. BurnPyro

    BurnPyro Forum Royalty

    Media looking for those viewer numbers
     
  2. Sokolov

    Sokolov The One True Cactuar Octopi

    To some extent, you can argue that they earned it? I mean, if a candidate is ahead in the polls (for whatever reason) and does draw in the viewers (presumably because people want to hear/see them), does that not imply they have earned the spotlight?

    It might not be fair to some candidates, but it does seems more valuable to the constituents that the focus is on those that people are actively looking to vote for?
     
    DarkJello likes this.
  3. BurnPyro

    BurnPyro Forum Royalty

    Then again, if you're ahead and get more questions, it's more likely that you stay ahead.

    Snowballing politics?
     
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  4. DarkJello

    DarkJello I need me some PIE!

    10-14-2015

    (CNN)Donald Trump holds double-digit leads over Ben Carson in both South Carolina and Nevada, the third and fourth states scheduled to hold nominating contests in next year's race for the presidency, with Trump widely seen in each state as the best candidate to handle a range of top issues, according to new CNN/ORC polls.

    Trump holds 38% support in Nevada, with Carson in second with 22%, and in South Carolina, Trump doubles Carson's support, 36% to 18%. No other candidate comes close to those top two in either state; the third-place candidate in each case has less than 10% support.

    Trump's backing in both states outpaces his support in most recent national polling, where he tends to draw around a quarter of Republican voters.

    Trump's lead rests on widespread perceptions that he's the best candidate to handle the economy (67% say so in Nevada, 59% in South Carolina, while no other candidate hits double-digits) and illegal immigration (55% in Nevada and 51% in South Carolina, topping the other candidates by 40 points or more). About 6 in 10 in each state say Trump is the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington (60% in Nevada, 58% in South Carolina). Furthermore, nearly half -- 47% in Nevada and 44% in South Carolina -- view Trump as the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election next November.

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/14/politics/republican-poll-donald-trump-nevada-south-carolina/
     
  5. Sokolov

    Sokolov The One True Cactuar Octopi

    Assuming people like what you answer. I'd have to look at some data to see if there's correlation between answering more questions and future polling, but I suspect it can be both good and bad.
     
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  6. DarkJello

    DarkJello I need me some PIE!

    Real estate mogul Donald Trump announced his intent to run for president in the 2016 election on Tuesday morning at a self-named skyscraper in New York City.Jun 16, 2015

    Nearly 4 months into his campaign, and The Donald is going strong. I admit surprise at this fact. Many experts are beyond gobsmacked. What, if anything, will be his downfall?
     
  7. Sokolov

    Sokolov The One True Cactuar Octopi

    I am not sure that I'd agree that "experts are beyond gobsmacked." The things said by experts I read are still relevant. This Republican field is a bit absurd in size, and makes things difficult to track, and while a couple have dropped out, the field is still huge.

    Once we are down to 4-5 candidates, if Trump is still leading by huge margins, I'd say he's defied the experts then, but for now, the situation hasn't changed very much.

    While he has certainly lasted longer than some might have predicted, past results have largely correlated with endorsements so that remains a hurdle (this is also true for Democrats not named Clinton).
     
  8. BurnPyro

    BurnPyro Forum Royalty

    I'd guess if you're a bad candidate you'd do poorly with more questions and if you're good you'd do well.

    Then again, if you're a bad candidate you're probably gonna go down sometime, more questions should just give a broader view of the candidate.
     
  9. DarkJello

    DarkJello I need me some PIE!

    Darn near every expert on the L and R predicted the demise of Trump's campaign day after day and week after week, for the first few months. "Some", in this instance, undersells the reality.
     
  10. Ohmin

    Ohmin Forum Royalty

    I'm behind on a few pages, but any chance of solid data on this? Personally I think you're probably right, but I'd be interested in seeing the figures on how many perceived personal attacks are imbedded into adds and such.

    I suspect though this is in part to do with the form of election system. With Belgian government and other similar parliamentary systems, you've got a vote for parties, as much/more than individuals, while (ostensibly) each position in the US is voted on with specific individuals. This might lead to more individual attacks rather than generalized "this party is full of racists!" or "this party is full of heathens!" or other similar things.

    But that's just speculation.
     
  11. Sokolov

    Sokolov The One True Cactuar Octopi

    I guess it depends on which experts you were talking about, but the ones I followed didn't really say he was out by X or Y date. Rather, they listed reasons why he might not last, and in most cases those reasons are still relevant.

    Thus, I believe that lasting longer than "some" have predicted is a valid statement, because the underlying reasons for their lack of belief are still largely applicable. He hasn't made it through those hurdles just yet.

    Again, if we come down to 4-5 candidates, we are past Iowa and New Hampshire and other such things, and Trump is still in lead, I'll definitely agree the experts were largely wrong then.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2015
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  12. Ohmin

    Ohmin Forum Royalty

    How DARE YOU!

    You said earlier that... [insert contradictory statement here]
     
    DarkJello likes this.
  13. BurnPyro

    BurnPyro Forum Royalty

    Come across this, thought it was pretty telling

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  14. darklord48

    darklord48 Forum Royalty

    Part of Sanders's supremacy over Clinton in online polls is probably due to his base being younger than Clinton's. Sanders is also far more popular on Reddit. I have seen a large number of posts make it to the front page of /r/all. Anyone that spends a decent amount of time on Reddit also knows that Redditors like to swarm online polls and change the outcome in their favor.
     
  15. BurnPyro

    BurnPyro Forum Royalty

    Not an unreasonable point. I've seen 3/12th of the VODS of the debate now, been caught up in other stuff. Will comment later.

    btw: sanders his accent/way of talking is funny, I thought that was always overacted in films and whatnot.
     
  16. DarkJello

    DarkJello I need me some PIE!

    Thanks for the info BP. Interesting details and discussion for sure. I get why people feel the Bern. Clinton, on the other hand, gives me gas and nearly causes vertigo.


    And now to breaking news. Yucky activists tried and failed to bully peeps at a Trump rally this morning.

    Breaking: State Police Drag Radical Screaming Black-Latino Activists From Trump Rally in Richmond

    Kristinn Taylor Oct 14th, 2015 7:59 pm

    Black Lives Matter and pro-illegal alien Latino activists were forcibly removed by Virginia State Police officers after disrupting a rally held Wednesday evening in Richmond by leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

    There were reports that ‘small fights’ had broken out between the protesters and Trump supporters.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...-latino-protesters-from-richmond-trump-rally/
     
  17. BurnPyro

    BurnPyro Forum Royalty

    What's the deal with the word Alien btw? Who introduced that for illigals? It sounds so odd.
     
  18. Boozha

    Boozha I need me some PIE!

    Alien means foreigner. Alius, the other. Alienus, stranger, foreigner. A wonderfully divisive term inventing barriers between people
     
  19. BurnPyro

    BurnPyro Forum Royalty

    I figured something like that. Sad.
     
  20. DarkJello

    DarkJello I need me some PIE!

    Full Definition of ALIEN
    1
    a : belonging or relating to another person, place, or thing : strange
    b : relating, belonging, or owing allegiance to another country or government : foreign
    c : exotic

    2
    : differing in nature or character typically to the point of incompatibility
    alien·ly adverb

    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/alien
     

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