2015-03 to 2015-09 Player One WR (Map Data)

Is this because you just surrender? Or because it's actually happening that you can ACTUALLY lose in less than 5 minutes?

I looked at the first 3 pages of your match history and only found a few games where it was less than 5m, and they were entirely <1m games - which I can't imagine were actually "real." Unless you or your opponent just surrendered immediately, presuming draw win.

In the 3 poages of games, I found three 0min games, and a single 1m game. Everything else was at least 6 minutes. I can't tell if you went first or not in these, but looking at all your games in my dataset, we get the following.

You have a record of 229-75.

For games lasting less than 5 minutes, you have a record of 18-5.

In games in which you went first, your record in sub-5 minute games is: 9-3

In games in which you went second, your record in sub-5 minute games is: 9-2

So at least in your own case, I am not seeing a difference whether you went first or second.

~

Granted, it is true that the first player win % goes up if I include sub-5 minute games:



But you can see it doesn't make a huge difference, and is partly because sub-5 minute games make up just 5% of all ranked games, and I have no way of telling if these are legit games or not.

I'll look into this more and see if I can find anything conclusive.

 

Here is the breakdown between the 2 groups.

So the question is... are people actually losing within 5 minutes? What is happening here?

Unfortunately, the number of these games are really quite small, which makes it harder to slice the data in interesting ways and to try and draw meaningful conclusions.

For the purposes of this discussion, I think we can assume they are all legit games (and I think even if some % aren't, there is no reason to believe that the non-legit games would somehow favor P1).

One way to think about is that there is subset of games that are FEEL so draw-win, people are surrendering rapidly. The question is whether or not they would have actually lost had they played on, and there's no way to tell that from this data, unfortunately.

Another reasonable conclusion too is that in general, shorter games are going to favor P1, simply because the longer the game goes, the more diminished the First Move Advantage becomes.