Be nice if this thread could stay civil and on topic - there is another thread for the political trash talk. Does anyone know what Trump is likely to actually do, it's kind of hard to distinguish what is serious from the torrent of verbal diarrhea of the past year. I found this on his policies, but I don't know which of them he actually cares about. What are the things that he solidly wants to do? What are the things he has a chance of actually getting through the 'checks and balances', or just what is practically possible? Repealing Obamacare -- I've heard this should be fairly easy for him to do. Import Tax on China/Mexico? -- Seems like this would violate existing treaties. Banning Muslims? -- I think he has already backtracked on this. Building a Wall? Deport Illegal Migrants? His Tax Policy -- perhaps's someone could explain the intention here: --Simplifying the Tax Code into four brackets from 7 --Create a flat 15% business tax --Eliminate the death tax (I guess this is the same as inheritance tax here, the right push this line in the UK too, but it always seemed like a fundamental mechanism if we are to stop the wealth moving along dynastic lines and becoming a quasi-aristocracy (which we sort of are already).
1. Make America Great Again /end of list For reals though, in the following month and a half Trump will start selling is non-campaign policy and plans. You'll hear a marginalization of some of the things he's said and other things he actually wants to do will start being the news.
theoretically it'll be relatively easy for him to push through a lot of things, given the way the rest of the system is
remember the art of the deal. threaten the extreme then negotiate towards the middle. he said deport all illegals. but he wont do that, his later rhetoric was deport the criminal illegals. he said lock her up. but he wont do that, but I imagine the Clinton foundation is in for a hard time though. he said ill bomb the Bane Shift out of them. nukes are no deterrent if no one believes youll really use them. but he wont nuke anyone....... maybe apply this principle to just about all of his original stated policies and I think youll have a better idea where he actually is. the fact that a lot of ppl believe his extreme rhetoric just means hes doing it right.
That makes some sense to me. I read someone say 'his opponents take him literally but not seriously, his supporters take him seriously but not literally'. Still, I'm not sure how that attitude is going to work in the context of global politics... I guess some people would just see it as lying... we'll see I guess.
For now the most important thing will be how his cabinet is constructed. The people he brings in will either make the first 2 years of his election very productive or a stand still. I think its safe to say Obamacare will get repealed. The Republicans have the Senate, House and Presidency and depending on who fills the open Supreme Court slot will have majority there as well. One of the things I would look for in the coming years is the concept of Basic Income. Its gaining traction in some European countries and the tests in some west coast states seem to be doing well. If handled well it could pull the rug out from beneath the democratic party. It's something that has a fair bit of support on the republican side but would have been impossible to push through with a divided congress. The Republicans having complete control gives them a unique opportunity to push things through.
Basic Income is a socialist idea, if the republicans pass it they lose all their credibility. Then again, what credibility
Depends on how it is presented and utilized. If you distill Democrats and Republicans down to their simplest form the Democrats believe in big government and Republicans believe in small government. A massive chunk of the Democrats voter base comes from minorities and the low to lower-middle class because of their support for programs like Food Stamps, Medicare, etc. A basic income program could replace those programs instead of supplementing them (Cost wise it wouldn't be conceivable otherwise) which would remove the lower-class's reliance on the Democratic party. Socialist concept or not it would be a big political win for the Republicans if it let them tap a voter market that they otherwise almost always only get 10-20% of the vote from. The numbers I am about to use are just purely hypothetical so don't go ripping on them too much. Imagine for a minute that all households with a income of $100,000 or less would receive $10,000 nontaxable income each year. At the same time, The food-stamp program, Social Security Security and a few other key programs are closed. Medicare would still exist. It would be enough to help with basic necessities but not enough to live off of thus forcing people back into the work force. Think of your average college age kid living outside the home. Most likely he/she is working a full time job while studying full time just to afford rent, food, etc. Having basic income would provide a little money that would allow him/her some conforts. Maybe eating out every now and then or just putting the money towards paying off their college debt. Either way this puts money back into the economy which in turn creates jobs for the increase in work force. People working minimum wage jobs would no longer be killing themselves to make ends meet. Minimum wage (While still needing to increase over time) would no longer need the massive hike that many people seem to think currently needs to happen. This makes it easier for small businesses to operate and grow. It's definitely not a perfect solution. People smarter than I would need to hammer out details but the results align with many Republican ideals. Not to mention that a bit of socialism makes them "sexy" to the younger population. Trumps success this election proves that the Republican party needs to think long and hard about what they espouse or they are going to find it very difficult to maintain office as the older generation dies off and the younger one moves in.
I also would not be surprised in the slightest if Marijuana is federally legalized under Trump. Trump is a business man and there is a lot of tax dollars to be had by taxing Marijuana sales. Just this election 8-10 states voted to legalize it is some fashion. The winds are shifting and even though it would be hard to fight it through a Republican held congress he would likely get a lot of Democrat support if it was presented as a way to generate revenue for Education reform. Edit: Just to be clear, I didn't vote for Trump and think he is a buffoon. I am speaking purely hypothetically in the context of what Trump could do during his term.
I'll see if I can find the interview, but I know Trump has stated that he has favorable views of legalized Medical MJ as well as respecting states' rights regarding Recreational.
Didn't they legalize the mary jane in a lot of states during last nights vote? Sok posted some stuff about that, heard it on the news as well
No. We can guess based on campaign promises what he'll at least try to do but it's not as if people have been beholden to such in them in the past... for better and more often for worse. If Trump is a man of his word... at least partially (best we can get at this time?), we can make some guesses, but that's it. What he CAN do, once actually in office, is to control the military, which, based on rhetoric, would likely involve a cessation of support for Syrian rebels, or, at the very least, a renewed attempt at military cooperation with Russia and/or Syria to go after ISIS within the region. He can also repeal, modify, or add to the multitude of standing executive orders, and theoretically get members of his party to submit bills for consideration by the House and Senate. He can also issue new directives to Federal agencies, including the EPA, FEMA, ICE, etc. For example ICE has often been told to stand down regarding deportation of illegal immigrants. Even if he does not manage to push through (or even proffer) his promised legislation to make legal re-entry for non-criminal deportees much easier he can get the deportation process started up again/accelerated by comparison of the current administration. He can also get to work on setting up a special prosecutor for Hillary Clinton... I think (not completely sure on that or how much Congressional acceptance would be possible). With the Republicans retaining the House and Senate, it's likely they will at least consider his Supreme Court nominees as well, which is another thing he can do. Obviously, some of this is subject to a lack of Congressional interference. For example while the President may pull out of Syria (or at least out of conflict with the Government there) even given current directives from Congress, if Congress issued a proper Declaration of War he'd have to stay/go back in. But we don't know with any certainty what he WILL do. For that we will need to wait and see. I mean, for all we know, thanks to Clinton/Bush/Obama EO's he might try and declare a state of National Emergency that somehow requires the suspension of Congress and/or the Supreme Court and become a Dictator. Though this is unlikely, and just an example of the extremes of possibility. We live in interesting times though. Hopefully we'll manage to get through and maybe get some positive things to happen in the process. Until next time...
Reports on Trump's likely cabinet: Newt Gingrich for Secretary of State (needs no introduction) Jeff Sessions for Defence Secretary (R-Alabama) Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary (worked at Goldman Sachs for 17 years and CEO of Dune Capital) Forrest Lucas for Interior Secretary (founder of Lucas Oil) Rudy Giuliani/Chris Christie for Attorney General Wilbur Ross for Commerce Secretary (billionaire investor) Victoria Lipnic for Labor Secretary (commissioner of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission since 2010) Rick Scott for Health and Human Services Secretary (R-Florida, this one is pretty outrageous, but then it's no different than Ted Cruz chairing the science committee I suppose) Harold Hamm for Energy Secretary (CEO of Continental Energy, another big oil guy) Jeff Miller for VA Chair (current House Veterans’ Affairs Chairman) Myron Ebell for EPA Administration (Climate Change skeptic at Competitive Enterprise Institute) Looks like mostly big oil, big banks/wall street, and establishment politicians, and a lot of climate change deniers on that list too. So... business as usual?
Anyway, as for Trump will do, this is what he SAID he'll do: * FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress; * SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health); * THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated; * FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service; * FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government; * SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections. On the same day, I will begin taking the following 7 actions to protect American workers: * FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205 * SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership * THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator * FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately * FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars' worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal. * SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward * SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America's water and environmental infrastructure Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law: * FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama * SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States * THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities * FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won't take them back * FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting. Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration: Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate. End The Offshoring Act. Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free. American Energy & Infrastructure Act. Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act. Redirects education dollars to give parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-side childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families. End Illegal Immigration Act Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first. Restoring Community Safety Act. Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars. Restoring National Security Act. Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.
For what it's worth, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that term limits will not be considered, and neither will infrastructure be a priority.
Unlike what he randomly said throughout the campaign, most of the items on the above plan is actually pretty reasonable (and also typically Republican). ~ That said, here's what I expect will happen. Trump will start to do some of this stuff, and quickly realize it is much, much more difficult to push through than he realizes. A few make it through, and we see a dramatic slowdown as the more difficult initiatives stall out. His attempts to trade "negotiation" likely results in very little actual changes unless he does actually just pull out of trade deals - Americans then realize what the trade deals actually do in terms of allowing easier flow of capital between the countries and the positive impact they actually have (particularly making it easier for American businesses to access foreign markets). I fully expect Obamacare to be repealed - I am not sure what will happen with that, but I think in terms of healthcare premiums not much will actually change. His plans to allow for deductions is interesting, but it just largely means a different form of subsidies for healthcare. So unless he has something special planned, I don't expect premiums to stop rising. I also don't know what happens to people who will be once again denied due to existing conditions, unless he plans to keep that somehow. If it does go away, I don't look forward to filling out a dozen pages of paperwork for health insurance again, those things were a PITA! Deporting 2 million illegals is a pretty lofty goal, considering the history: But it depends on how much vetting and how carefully they do it - it's quite likely they will do it with much less restrictions and actually achieve that number. Ending Common Core makes me sad. As the spouse of an educator who has actually looked at the standards, they actually offer a lot of freedom and makes a lot of sense, and in general has been greatly misunderstood. But the standards do require a higher caliber of teachers and more effort from educators and parents. I also understand there's a federal vs state divide here so it was always going to be unpopular for many states.
